The Prediction Markets

Which banks will take Anthropic public?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$18K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Mizuho 89%

Next is Allen & Company at 58%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Mizuho
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mizuho
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Allen & Company
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Allen & Company
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
William Blair
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
William Blair
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Raymond James
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raymond James
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$583
Trade this on Kalshi
Stifel Financial
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stifel Financial
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rothschild & Co
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rothschild & Co
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Evercore
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Evercore
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Kalshi
Lazard
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lazard
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi
Qatalyst Partners
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Qatalyst Partners
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Centerview
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Centerview
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Perella Weinberg Partners
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Perella Weinberg Partners
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$131
Trade this on Kalshi
Greenhill & Co
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Greenhill & Co
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$611
Trade this on Kalshi
Moelis & Company
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moelis & Company
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$218
Trade this on Kalshi
Piper Sandler
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Piper Sandler
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Kalshi
PJT Partners
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
PJT Partners
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, EDGAR database, Anthropic

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mizuho
  • Allen & Company
  • William Blair

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which banks will take Anthropic public?". Mizuho leads at 89%. Next is Allen & Company at 58%. $18K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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