The Prediction Markets

Which banks will take OpenAI public?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$12K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Stifel Financial 44%

Next is Needham & Company at 39%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Stifel Financial
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stifel Financial
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Needham & Company
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Needham & Company
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
William Blair
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
William Blair
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Raymond James
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raymond James
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Allen & Company
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Allen & Company
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$776
Trade this on Kalshi
Rothschild & Co
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rothschild & Co
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$41
Trade this on Kalshi
Qatalyst Partners
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Qatalyst Partners
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Perella Weinberg Partners
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Perella Weinberg Partners
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$26
Trade this on Kalshi
Piper Sandler
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Piper Sandler
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Centerview
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Centerview
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$122
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Evercore
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Evercore
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$167
Trade this on Kalshi
Greenhill & Co
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Greenhill & Co
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Lazard
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lazard
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$62
Trade this on Kalshi
Moelis & Company
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moelis & Company
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Kalshi
PJT Partners
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
PJT Partners
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$44
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, EDGAR database, OpenAI

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Stifel Financial
  • Needham & Company
  • William Blair

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which banks will take OpenAI public?". Stifel Financial leads at 44%. Next is Needham & Company at 39%. $12K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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