The Prediction Markets

Which bills will become law in 2026?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$828K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Export-control chip security 32.1%

Next is Protect College Sports Act at 31%. The venues differ most on Film/TV production expensing (Polymarket 6.1%, Kalshi 13%), a 7.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Export-control chip security
32.1%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Export-control chip security
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Export-control chip security
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 31¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 32¢.

Protect College Sports Act
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Protect College Sports Act
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$53K
Trade this on Kalshi
Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
AI-chip export licensing
18.1%
Polymarket 20.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
AI-chip export licensing
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
AI-chip export licensing
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 16¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 17¢.

Insulin cost cap
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Insulin cost cap
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Data center utility cost protection
17.8%
Polymarket 17%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 18%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Data center utility cost protection
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Data center utility cost protection
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

ADS-B revenue-use restriction
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
ADS-B revenue-use restriction
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
FISA Section 702 reauthorization
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
FISA Section 702 reauthorization
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$111K
Trade this on Polymarket
FISA Section 702 reauthorization
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$157K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 21 more outcomes
Film/TV production expensing
11.3%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Film/TV production expensing
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Film/TV production expensing
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.6¢.

Electric vehicle Highway Trust Fund fee
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Electric vehicle Highway Trust Fund fee
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Railway safety bill
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Railway safety bill
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Credit-card routing competition
9.9%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $699 (6.99x)
Polymarket
Contract
Credit-card routing competition
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14.3¢
Sell Yes
10.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$699 (6.99x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Credit-card routing competition
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

NO FAKES Act
9.2%
Polymarket 12%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
NO FAKES Act
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$785
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
NO FAKES Act
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Critical-minerals stockpile
9.1%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 8.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Critical-minerals stockpile
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Critical-minerals stockpile
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
8.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8.9¢.

E15 year-round sales
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
E15 year-round sales
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Surface transportation reauthorization
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Surface transportation reauthorization
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
JAWBONE Act
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
JAWBONE Act
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
White House ballroom funding
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
White House ballroom funding
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dignity Act
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dignity Act
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jewish American security
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jewish American security
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
SHOWER Act
6.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
SHOWER Act
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$696
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
SHOWER Act
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6.9¢.

2.50 Coin
6%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
2.50 Coin
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$697
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
2.50 Coin
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

DEFIANCE Act
5.6%
Polymarket 10.4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
DEFIANCE Act
Last price
10.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19.3¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$518 (5.18x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
DEFIANCE Act
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.9¢.

Trump Airport
4%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 4.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trump Airport
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Trump Airport
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.4¢.

Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday
3.7%
Kalshi 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
ROTOR Act
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
ROTOR Act
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Smithsonian Women’s History Museum
2.8%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Smithsonian Women’s History Museum
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Smithsonian Women’s History Museum
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

SELF DRIVE Act
1.5%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 1.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
SELF DRIVE Act
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$446
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
SELF DRIVE Act
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.9¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: congress.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Library of Congress
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Export-control chip security
  • Protect College Sports Act
  • Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions

Live prices for Export-control chip security

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which bills will become law in 2026?". Export-control chip security leads at 32.1%. Next is Protect College Sports Act at 31%. $828K has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if X is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation includes Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22), the Library of Congress (congress.gov), and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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