The Prediction Markets

Which brands will advertise during the Big Game?

Closes
Feb 15, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$36K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Disney+ 92%

Next is OpenAI / ChatGPT at 90%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Disney+
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Disney+
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenAI / ChatGPT
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI / ChatGPT
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amazon Prime
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amazon Prime
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gemini
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gemini
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hims & Hers
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hims & Hers
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Kalshi
Anthropic / Claude
68%
Kalshi 68%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic / Claude
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oakley
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oakley
Last price
59%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Kalshi
Grok
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Grok
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$864
Trade this on Kalshi
Coinbase
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Coinbase
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Liquid Death
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Liquid Death
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$487
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Nike
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nike
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
DoorDash
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
DoorDash
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Allstate
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Allstate
Last price
47%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jeep
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jeep
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Paramount+
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paramount+
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Base44 / Wix
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Base44 / Wix
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$184
Trade this on Kalshi
Temu
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Temu
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Spotify
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spotify
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
SpaceX
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
SpaceX
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zyn
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zyn
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Disney+
  • OpenAI / ChatGPT
  • Amazon Prime

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which brands will advertise during the Big Game?". Disney+ leads at 92%. Next is OpenAI / ChatGPT at 90%. $36K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 15, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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