The Prediction Markets

Which celebrities will appear in mobile game advertisements this year?

Ends in about 71 daysExpected to finish
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
6 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Shaquille O'Neal 30%

Next is Scarlett Johansson at 26%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Shaquille O'Neal
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Shaquille O'Neal
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$702
Trade this on Kalshi
Scarlett Johansson
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scarlett Johansson
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$857
Trade this on Kalshi
The Rock
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Rock
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Kalshi
Paul George
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul George
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Beyoncé
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beyoncé
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Selena Gomez
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Selena Gomez
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Dua Lipa
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dua Lipa
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Swift
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Timothée Chalamet
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Kalshi
Jay-Z
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jay-Z
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: producer of project, ABC, Fox News

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Shaquille O'Neal
  • Scarlett Johansson
  • The Rock

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which celebrities will appear in mobile game advertisements this year?". Shaquille O'Neal leads at 30%. Next is Scarlett Johansson at 26%. $2K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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