The Prediction Markets

Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?

Closes
Jul 1, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$202K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool 94.5%

Next is Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man at 94%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool
94.5%
Polymarket 94.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool
Last price
94.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man
94%
Polymarket 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95.7¢
Sell Yes
92.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine
92%
Polymarket 92%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop
80.5%
Polymarket 80.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop
Last price
80.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau
80%
Polymarket 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Benedict Wong as Wong
78%
Polymarket 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benedict Wong as Wong
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mark Ruffalo as Hulk
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Ruffalo as Hulk
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel
73%
Polymarket 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel
Last price
73%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Elizabeth Olsen as Scarlet Witch
60%
Polymarket 60%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elizabeth Olsen as Scarlet Witch
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 63¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel
55.5%
Polymarket 55.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brie Larson as Captain Marvel
Last price
55.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tom Holland as Spider-Man
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Holland as Spider-Man
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Halle Berry as Storm
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Halle Berry as Storm
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jonathan Majors as Kang
9.6%
Polymarket 9.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $990 (9.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jonathan Majors as Kang
Last price
9.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10.1¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$990 (9.90x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool
  • Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man
  • Hugh Jackman as Wolverine

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?". Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool leads at 94.5%. Next is Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man at 94%. $202K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

Avengers: Doomsday is a Marvel film scheduled to release on December, 18, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor playing the listed character appears in Avengers: Doomsday. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve upon announcement of casting, regardless of if the film is delayed, cancelled, or otherwise fails to be released. If no casting is announced, this market will resolve upon footage of the domestic theatrical cut of the film. If multiple people are cast for the same role, the listed individual being among the cast list for the relevant character will be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution. If no casting is announced and Avengers: Doomsday is definitively cancelled or fails to be released by June 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., the domestic theatrical cut of Avengers: Doomsday, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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