The Prediction Markets

Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$87K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Denver, CO 94.4%

Next is Las Vegas, NV at 93%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Denver, CO
94.4%
Polymarket 94.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denver, CO
Last price
94.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
92.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Las Vegas, NV
93%
Polymarket 93%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Las Vegas, NV
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sacramento, CA
19%
Polymarket 19%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sacramento, CA
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Detroit, MI
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Detroit, MI
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Baltimore, MD
10.1%
Polymarket 10.1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 13.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $741 (7.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baltimore, MD
Last price
10.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
13.5¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$741 (7.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Portland, OR
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Portland, OR
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
New Orleans, LA
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Orleans, LA
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chicago, IL
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chicago, IL
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Boston, MA
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boston, MA
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Seattle, WA
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Seattle, WA
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Philadelphia, PA
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Philadelphia, PA
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Washington, DC
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Washington, DC
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Minneapolis, MN
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minneapolis, MN
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Philadelphia, PA
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pittsburgh, PA
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
St. Louis, MO
4.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
St. Louis, MO
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Charlotte, NC
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charlotte, NC
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
London, UK
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
London, UK
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
New York, NY
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
New York, NY
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tokyo, Japan
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tokyo, Japan
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: waymo.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Denver, CO
  • Las Vegas, NV
  • Sacramento, CA

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?". Denver, CO leads at 94.4%. Next is Las Vegas, NV at 93%. $87K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Waymo begins offering its ride-hailing service to the general public within the listed city by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions. A qualifying launch requires the general public be able to hail a Waymo vehicle within the listed city \ through the Waymo One app or another official Waymo platform (such as a dedicated website or integrated partner app like Uber). Limited pilot programs, internal employee testing, or invite-only service will not qualify. The primary resolution source is official information from Waymo (see: https://waymo.com/rides/c), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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