The Prediction Markets

Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q1 2026?

Closed
Mar 31, 2026
Traded
$1.0M
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 31, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 207 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Affirm Holdings (AFRM)
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4970 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Affirm Holdings (AFRM)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 207 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$162K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4970 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 207 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$109K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pure Storage (PSTG)
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4970 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pure Storage (PSTG)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 207 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$80K
Trade this on Polymarket
SoFi Technologies (SOFI)
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4970 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
SoFi Technologies (SOFI)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 207 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$273K
Trade this on Polymarket
Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR)
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4970 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 207 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$357K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Affirm Holdings (AFRM)
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY)
  • Pure Storage (PSTG)

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Which companies added to S&P 500 in Q1 2026?". Affirm Holdings (AFRM) last traded at 0.1%. Next is Alnylam Pharmaceuticals (ALNY) at 0.1%. $1.0M has traded across 5 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 31, 2026.

The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The next rebalance is currently scheduled for March 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index. An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date. The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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