Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Twilio 99%
Next is Cheniere Energy at 34%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Twilio99%99%96¢ bid, — askpolled, 59s agoNo askTwilio99%Kalshi 99%polled, 59s ago
Twilio
99%
99%
96¢ bid, — ask
polled, 59s ago
No ask
Twilio
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 59s ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Twilio
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 96¢
- Volume
- $400
Cheniere Energy34%34%25¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 59s ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Cheniere Energy34%Kalshi 34%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Cheniere Energy
34%
34%
25¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Cheniere Energy
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cheniere Energy
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $304
Astera Labs21%21%21¢ bid, 27¢ askpolled, 59s ago27¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $370 (3.70x)Astera Labs21%Kalshi 21%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Astera Labs
21%
21%
21¢ bid, 27¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
27¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Astera Labs
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Astera Labs
- Last price
- 21%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 27¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $370 (3.70x)
- Volume
- $387
Okta19%19%12¢ bid, 90¢ askpolled, 59s ago90¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $111 (1.11x)Okta19%Kalshi 19%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Okta
19%
19%
12¢ bid, 90¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
90¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Okta
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Okta
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 90¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $111 (1.11x)
- Volume
- $280
Affirm Holdings13%13%8¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 59s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Affirm Holdings13%Kalshi 13%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Affirm Holdings
13%
13%
8¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Affirm Holdings
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Affirm Holdings
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $157
ATI13%13%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 59s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)ATI13%Kalshi 13%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
ATI
13%
13%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
ATI
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- ATI
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $182
Credo Technology11%11%11¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 59s ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Credo Technology11%Kalshi 11%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Credo Technology
11%
11%
11¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Credo Technology
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Credo Technology
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $220
Curtiss-Wright10%10%4¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 59s ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Curtiss-Wright10%Kalshi 10%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Curtiss-Wright
10%
10%
4¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Curtiss-Wright
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Curtiss-Wright
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $3
HEICO10%10%4¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 59s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)HEICO10%Kalshi 10%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
HEICO
10%
10%
4¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
HEICO
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- HEICO
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $150
MongoDB10%10%4¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 59s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)MongoDB10%Kalshi 10%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
MongoDB
10%
10%
4¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
MongoDB
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- MongoDB
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $119
Show 25 more outcomesHide 25 outcomes
Southern Copper9%9%5¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 59s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Southern Copper9%Kalshi 9%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Southern Copper
9%
9%
5¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Southern Copper
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Southern Copper
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Atlassian8.5%8.5%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 59s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Atlassian8.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Atlassian
8.5%
8.5%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Atlassian
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Atlassian
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Circle Internet Group8.5%8.5%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 59s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Circle Internet Group8.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Circle Internet Group
8.5%
8.5%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Circle Internet Group
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Circle Internet Group
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
LPL Financial8.5%8.5%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 59s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)LPL Financial8.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
LPL Financial
8.5%
8.5%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
LPL Financial
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- LPL Financial
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Natera8.5%8.5%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 59s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Natera8.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Natera
8.5%
8.5%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Natera
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Natera
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Rocket Companies8.5%8.5%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 59s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Rocket Companies8.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Rocket Companies
8.5%
8.5%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Rocket Companies
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rocket Companies
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Snowflake8.5%8.5%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 59s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Snowflake8.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Snowflake
8.5%
8.5%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Snowflake
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Snowflake
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
TPG8.5%8.5%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 59s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)TPG8.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
TPG
8.5%
8.5%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
TPG
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- TPG
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Tradeweb Markets8.5%8.5%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 59s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Tradeweb Markets8.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Tradeweb Markets
8.5%
8.5%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Tradeweb Markets
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tradeweb Markets
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
Venture Global8.5%8.5%4¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 59s ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Venture Global8.5%Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Venture Global
8.5%
8.5%
4¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Venture Global
8.5%
Kalshi 8.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Venture Global
- Last price
- 8.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
BWX Technologies8%8%4¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 59s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)BWX Technologies8%Kalshi 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
BWX Technologies
8%
8%
4¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
BWX Technologies
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- BWX Technologies
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Guidewire Software8%8%4¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 59s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Guidewire Software8%Kalshi 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Guidewire Software
8%
8%
4¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Guidewire Software
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Guidewire Software
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Roblox8%8%2¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 59s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Roblox8%Kalshi 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Roblox
8%
8%
2¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Roblox
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Roblox
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $201
SoFi8%8%2¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 59s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)SoFi8%Kalshi 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
SoFi
8%
8%
2¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
SoFi
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- SoFi
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $107
SpaceX8%8%2¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 59s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)SpaceX8%Kalshi 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
SpaceX
8%
8%
2¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
SpaceX
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- SpaceX
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $300
Talen Energy8%8%4¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 59s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Talen Energy8%Kalshi 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Talen Energy
8%
8%
4¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Talen Energy
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Talen Energy
- Last price
- 8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Duolingo7%7%4¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 59s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Duolingo7%Kalshi 7%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Duolingo
7%
7%
4¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Duolingo
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Duolingo
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals5%5%5¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 59s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Alnylam Pharmaceuticals5%Kalshi 5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals
5%
5%
5¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alnylam Pharmaceuticals
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $104
Cloudflare5%5%4¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 59s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Cloudflare5%Kalshi 5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Cloudflare
5%
5%
4¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Cloudflare
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cloudflare
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $531
CoreWeave4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 59s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)CoreWeave4%Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
CoreWeave
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
CoreWeave
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- CoreWeave
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Strategy (MicroStrategy)4%4%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Strategy (MicroStrategy)4%Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Strategy (MicroStrategy)
4%
4%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Strategy (MicroStrategy)
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Strategy (MicroStrategy)
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $17
Toast4%4%4¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 59s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Toast4%Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Toast
4%
4%
4¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Toast
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Toast
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $1
Zoom4%4%3¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 59s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Zoom4%Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Zoom
4%
4%
3¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Zoom
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Zoom
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $33
Cerebras2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Cerebras2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Cerebras
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Cerebras
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cerebras
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Medline2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Medline2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Medline
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Medline
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Medline
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: S&P Global
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Twilio
- Cheniere Energy
- Astera Labs
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?". Twilio leads at 99%. Next is Cheniere Energy at 34%. $3K has traded across 35 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
More economics markets
See all economics markets- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?Yes94.1%$31.5M traded
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?Fed maintains rate94%$14.3M traded
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?Exactly 0 cuts94.2%$10.8M traded
- How high will WTI oil get by Dec 31, 2026?115.01 or above39.8%$9.3M traded
- Largest Company end of December 2026?NVIDIA59%$8.8M traded
- S&P close price end of 2026?7,800 to 7,999.9924%$8.0M traded