The Prediction Markets

Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$659K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Anthropic 77.8%

Next is Xiaomi at 55%. The venues differ most on Anthropic (Polymarket 74.5%, Kalshi 81%), a 6.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Anthropic
77.8%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 81%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Xiaomi
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
55%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$853
Trade this on Kalshi
Google
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Google
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Kalshi
OpenAI
31.1%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 13%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 85%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$161K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
85%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tencent
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tencent
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Meta
13.2%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 8%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 20%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Meta
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Meta
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Z AI
12.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 26.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Z AI
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

xAI
11.2%
Polymarket 7%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 10%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 16.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
xAI
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$105K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
xAI
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Alibaba
8.1%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 18%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

MiniMax
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 15 more outcomes
StepFun
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
StepFun
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Thinking Machines
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thinking Machines
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
DeepSeek
6.2%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 12%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Deepseek
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$240
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Moonshot AI
5.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 10%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moonshot AI
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Moonshot AI
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Baidu
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baidu
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Baidu
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Nvidia
5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
NVIDIA
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
InclusionAI
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
InclusionAI
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Amazon
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,389 (13.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amazon
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.2¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,389 (13.9x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Microsoft
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Microsoft
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mistral
4.4%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 7.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mistral
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mistral
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Mistral
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Moonshot
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,778 (27.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Meituan
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meituan
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.2¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,125 (31.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
01A1
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
01A1
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
IBM
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
IBM
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
ByteDance
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 4 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: lmarena.ai
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls), Artificial Analysis
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anthropic
  • Xiaomi
  • Google

Live prices for Anthropic

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?". Anthropic leads at 77.8%. Next is Xiaomi at 55%. $659K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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