The Prediction Markets

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$221K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Unusual Machines 42%

Next is Anduril at 24%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Unusual Machines
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Unusual Machines
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anduril
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anduril
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$55K
Trade this on Polymarket
TSMC
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
TSMC
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
OpenAI
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Eli Lilly
11.9%
Polymarket 11.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $741 (7.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eli Lilly
Last price
11.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13.5¢
Sell Yes
10.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$741 (7.41x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nvidia
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Lockheed Martin
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lockheed Martin
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
IonQ
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
IonQ
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Freeport-McMoRan
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Freeport-McMoRan
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
SpaceX
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
SpaceX
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$256
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Micron
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Micron
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Boeing
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boeing
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Palantir
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Palantir
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pfizer
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pfizer
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Samsung Electronics
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Samsung Electronics
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Anthropic
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
TikTok US / Bytedance
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
TikTok US / Bytedance
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Unusual Machines
  • Anduril
  • TSMC

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which companies will the US take a stake in?". Unusual Machines leads at 42%. Next is Anduril at 24%. $221K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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