The Prediction Markets

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$4.1M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Anthropic 56%

Next is Google at 27.3%. The venues differ most on Google (Polymarket 43%, Kalshi 3%), a 40-point gap.

Anthropic 56%Google 27.3%OpenAI 10.2%xAI 1.5%Meta 1.3%11 others 3.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
AnthropicArb
56%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, just nowKalshi 75%(71.9% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$396K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
75%
Fair, margin removed
71.9%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$273K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 47¢ and selling on Kalshi at 74¢ nets 2700 bps before fees.

GoogleArb
27.3%
Polymarket 43%polled, just nowKalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$334K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Google
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$205K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 42¢ nets 3800 bps before fees.

OpenAIArb
10.2%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, just nowKalshi 17%(16.3% fair)polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$233K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
16.3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$217K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 15¢ nets 1000 bps before fees.

xAI
1.5%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, just nowKalshi 2%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
xAI
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$186K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
xAI
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$179K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1.2¢.

Meta
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$207K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moonshot AI
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moonshot AI
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$81K
Trade this on Kalshi
DeepSeekArb
0.6%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$171K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 60 bps before fees.

Alibaba
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$168K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Z.ai
0.5%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$150K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Baidu
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowKalshi 1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baidu
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$122K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Baidu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Show 6 more outcomes
Moonshot
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$168K
Trade this on Polymarket
Amazon
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amazon
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$145K
Trade this on Polymarket
ByteDance
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$135K
Trade this on Polymarket
Meituan
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meituan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$108K
Trade this on Polymarket
Microsoft
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Microsoft
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$136K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mistral
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mistral
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$212K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Google on Kalshi at 4¢, sell on Polymarket at 42¢ (3800 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: lmarena.ai
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: LiveBench.ai
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anthropic
  • Google
  • OpenAI

Live prices for Anthropic

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which company has best AI model end of 2026?". Anthropic leads at 56%. Next is Google at 27.3%. $4.1M has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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