Combined depth · both venues
Loading both order books…
What the markets expect
Anthropic 60.8%
Next is OpenAI at 10.8%. The venues differ most on OpenAI (Polymarket 5.2%, Kalshi 17%), a 12-point gap.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Anthropic60.8%81%66.9% fair73¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 4 h ago77%59.3% fair75¢ bid, 78¢ askpolled, 4 h ago78¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $128 (1.28x)Anthropic60.8%Polymarket 81%(66.9% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 77%(59.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Anthropic
60.8%
81%
66.9% fair
73¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
77%
59.3% fair
75¢ bid, 78¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
78¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Anthropic
60.8%
Polymarket 81%(66.9% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 77%(59.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Anthropic
- Last price
- 81%
- Fair, margin removed
- 66.9%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 73¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anthropic
- Last price
- 77%
- Fair, margin removed
- 59.3%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 78¢
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $128 (1.28x)
- Volume
- $273K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
OpenAI10.8%5.2%4.3% fair1.5¢ bid, 8.9¢ askpolled, 4 h ago17%13.1% fair15¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 4 h ago8.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)OpenAI10.8%Polymarket 5.2%(4.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 17%(13.1% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
OpenAI
10.8%
5.2%
4.3% fair
1.5¢ bid, 8.9¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
17%
13.1% fair
15¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
8.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
OpenAI
10.8%
Polymarket 5.2%(4.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 17%(13.1% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- OpenAI
- Last price
- 5.2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,124 (11.2x)
- Volume
- $369
Kalshi
- Contract
- OpenAI
- Last price
- 17%
- Fair, margin removed
- 13.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 15¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $217K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
Moonshot10.7%13%10.7% fair0.5¢ bid, 25.5¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed25.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $392 (3.92x)Moonshot10.7%Polymarket 13%(10.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 25.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $392 (3.92x)
Moonshot
10.7%
13%
10.7% fair
0.5¢ bid, 25.5¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
25.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $392 (3.92x)
Moonshot
10.7%
Polymarket 13%(10.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 25.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $392 (3.92x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Moonshot
- Last price
- 13%
- Fair, margin removed
- 10.7%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 25.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $392 (3.92x)
- Volume
- $235
Nvidia4.3%5.3%4.3% fair0.3¢ bid, 10.2¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed10.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $980 (9.80x)Nvidia4.3%Polymarket 5.3%(4.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Nvidia
4.3%
5.3%
4.3% fair
0.3¢ bid, 10.2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
10.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Nvidia
4.3%
Polymarket 5.3%(4.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 10.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $980 (9.80x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nvidia
- Last price
- 5.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $980 (9.80x)
- Volume
- $214
Google2.7%5%4.1% fair1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 4 h ago3%2.3% fair3¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 4 h ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Google2.7%Polymarket 5%(4.1% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Google
2.7%
5%
4.1% fair
1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
3%
2.3% fair
3¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Google
2.7%
Polymarket 5%(4.1% fair)polled, 4 h agoKalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $661
Kalshi
- Contract
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $205K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
SpaceXAI2.3%2.8%0.6¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)SpaceXAI2.3%Polymarket 2.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
SpaceXAI
2.3%
2.8%
0.6¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
SpaceXAI
2.3%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- SpaceXAI
- Last price
- 2.8%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $231
xAI1.5%Not listed2%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 4 h ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)xAI1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
xAI
1.5%
Not listed
2%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
xAI
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- xAI
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $179K
Tencent0.9%1.1%0.2¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Tencent0.9%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Tencent
0.9%
1.1%
0.2¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Tencent
0.9%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tencent
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $223
Moonshot AI0.8%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Moonshot AI0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Moonshot AI
0.8%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Moonshot AI
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moonshot AI
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $81K
Alibaba0.7%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 4 h ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Alibaba0.7%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Alibaba
0.7%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Alibaba
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alibaba
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $207
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alibaba
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $52K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
Show 13 more outcomesHide 13 outcomes
DeepSeek0.7%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 4 h ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)DeepSeek0.7%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
DeepSeek
0.7%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
DeepSeek
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- DeepSeek
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $195
Kalshi
- Contract
- DeepSeek
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $93K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
Z.ai0.7%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Z.ai0.7%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Z.ai
0.7%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Z.ai
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Z.ai
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $209
Kalshi
- Contract
- Z.ai
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $69K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Prices on these venues are 4 h old, too old to show an executable spread.
Baidu0.6%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 4 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Baidu0.6%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Baidu
0.6%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Baidu
0.6%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Baidu
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $154
Kalshi
- Contract
- Baidu
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $16K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Amazon0.5%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Amazon0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Amazon
0.5%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Amazon
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Amazon
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $209
Meta0.5%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed0.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $11,111 (111x)Meta0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Meta
0.5%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 0.9¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
0.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Meta
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Meta
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $11,111 (111x)
- Volume
- $229
Microsoft0.5%0.6%0.2¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Microsoft0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Microsoft
0.5%
0.6%
0.2¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Microsoft
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Microsoft
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $210
MiniMax0.5%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)MiniMax0.5%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
MiniMax
0.5%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
MiniMax
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- MiniMax
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $195
Mistral0.4%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Mistral0.4%Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Mistral
0.4%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Mistral
0.4%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mistral
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $195
Thinky0.1%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)Thinky0.1%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Thinky
0.1%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Thinky
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Thinky
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $204
ByteDance0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)ByteDance0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
ByteDance
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
ByteDance
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- ByteDance
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $195
Meituan0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Meituan0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Meituan
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Meituan
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Meituan
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $178
StepFun0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)StepFun0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
StepFun
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
StepFun
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- StepFun
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $195
Xiaomi0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 4 h agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Xiaomi0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Xiaomi
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 4 h ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Xiaomi
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Xiaomi
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 4 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $195
Venue prices are 4 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads
Mostly the same bet: one difference
Where they differ
- Trading closes at different times: Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: LiveBench.ai
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Trading closes Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Anthropic
- OpenAI
- Moonshot
Live prices for Anthropic
What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Open on Polymarket ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…Kalshi
Open on Kalshi ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) end of November?". Anthropic leads at 60.8%. Next is OpenAI at 10.8%. $1.2M has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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