The Prediction Markets

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 39 days
Traded
$1.2M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Anthropic 65.9%

Next is OpenAI at 12.3%. The venues differ most on OpenAI (Polymarket 6.2%, Kalshi 17%), a 11-point gap.

Anthropic 65.9%OpenAI 12.3%Meituan 6.4%Google 3.1%xAI 1.7%18 others 10.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
AnthropicArb
65.9%
Polymarket 78.5%(71.8% fair)polled, 30s agoKalshi 75%(64.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
78.5%
Fair, margin removed
71.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
75%
Fair, margin removed
64.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$274K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 77¢ and selling on Polymarket at 78¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

OpenAIArb
12.3%
Polymarket 6.2%(5.7% fair)polled, 30s agoKalshi 17%(14.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
6.2%
Fair, margin removed
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$276
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
14.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$217K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 11¢ and selling on Kalshi at 15¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Meituan
6.4%
Polymarket 7.1%(6.4% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meituan
Last price
7.1%
Fair, margin removed
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Google
3.1%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 30s agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,020 (10.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Google
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$205K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

xAI
1.7%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
xAI
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$179K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moonshot AI
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moonshot AI
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$81K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alibaba
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$226
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Baidu
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baidu
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Baidu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Z.ai
0.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$209
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

DeepSeekArb
0.7%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 30s agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 60 bps before fees.

Show 13 more outcomes
Meta
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$277
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
0.6%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$256
Trade this on Polymarket
Amazon
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amazon
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
ByteDance
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Polymarket
Mistral
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mistral
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
Moonshot
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
Nvidia
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Polymarket
SpaceXAI
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
SpaceXAI
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
StepFun
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
StepFun
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
Tencent
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
Thinky
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thinky
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$236
Trade this on Polymarket
Xiaomi
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$242
Trade this on Polymarket
Microsoft
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Microsoft
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$280
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy OpenAI on Polymarket at 11¢, sell on Kalshi at 15¢ (400 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: LiveBench.ai
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anthropic
  • OpenAI
  • Meituan

Live prices for Anthropic

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of November?". Anthropic leads at 65.9%. Next is OpenAI at 12.3%. $1.2M has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on November 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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