The Prediction Markets

Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?

Closes
Oct 31, 2026, in 8 days
Traded
$1.2M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Anthropic 77%

Next is OpenAI at 12.8%. The venues differ most on Anthropic (Polymarket 96.7%, Kalshi 75%), a 22-point gap.

Anthropic 77%OpenAI 12.8%Google 2.4%xAI 1.9%Moonshot AI 1%16 others 4.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
AnthropicArb
77%
Polymarket 96.7%(91.7% fair)polled, 42s agoKalshi 75%(72.1% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
96.7%
Fair, margin removed
91.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
94.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
75%
Fair, margin removed
72.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$274K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 77¢ and selling on Polymarket at 94.5¢ nets 1750 bps before fees.

OpenAIArb
12.8%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 42s agoKalshi 17%(16.3% fair)polled, 42s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
16.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$217K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 15¢ nets 1150 bps before fees.

GoogleArb
2.4%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 42s agoKalshi 3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Google
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$205K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 3¢ nets 180 bps before fees.

xAI
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
xAI
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$179K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moonshot AI
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moonshot AI
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$81K
Trade this on Kalshi
Baidu
0.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 42s agoKalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baidu
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Baidu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

DeepSeekArb
0.8%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 42s agoKalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$905
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Alibaba
0.7%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 42s agoKalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$552
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Z.ai
0.7%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 42s agoKalshi 1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$496
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Meta
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 13 more outcomes
Moonshot
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$949
Trade this on Polymarket
SpaceXAI
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
SpaceXAI
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$563
Trade this on Polymarket
StepFun
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
StepFun
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Polymarket
Xiaomi
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$869
Trade this on Polymarket
Amazon
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amazon
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$888
Trade this on Polymarket
ByteDance
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$663
Trade this on Polymarket
Meituan
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meituan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$491
Trade this on Polymarket
Microsoft
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Microsoft
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$482
Trade this on Polymarket
Nvidia
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nvidia
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$901
Trade this on Polymarket
Thinky
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thinky
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$636
Trade this on Polymarket
Mistral
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mistral
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Polymarket
Tencent
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$775
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Anthropic on Kalshi at 77¢, sell on Polymarket at 94.5¢ (1750 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: livebench.ai
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: LiveBench.ai
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anthropic
  • OpenAI
  • Google

Live prices for Anthropic

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which company has the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) end of October?". Anthropic leads at 77%. Next is OpenAI at 12.8%. $1.2M has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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