The Prediction Markets

Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of December?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$1.2M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Anthropic 75%

Next is Meta at 32.6%. The venues differ most on Google (Polymarket 66.5%, Kalshi 3%), a 64-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Anthropic
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$274K
Trade this on Kalshi
Meta
32.6%
Polymarket 32.6%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
32.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Polymarket
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
22.6%
Polymarket 22.6%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 44.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $224 (2.24x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
Last price
22.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$224 (2.24x)
Volume
$850
Trade this on Polymarket
Pruna
22.6%
Polymarket 22.6%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 44.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $226 (2.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pruna
Last price
22.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$226 (2.26x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket
Pika
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 44.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $223 (2.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pika
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$223 (2.23x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Polymarket
Black Forest Labs
22.2%
Polymarket 22.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 44.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Black Forest Labs
Last price
22.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$240
Trade this on Polymarket
GoogleArb
18.9%
Polymarket 66.5%polled, 51s agoKalshi 3%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
66.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Google
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$205K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 48¢ nets 4400 bps before fees.

OpenAI
15.3%
Polymarket 10%polled, 51s agoKalshi 17%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$217K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 15¢.

ByteDance
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$844
Trade this on Polymarket
SpaceXAI
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
SpaceXAI
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$172
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 15 more outcomes
Pixverse
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pixverse
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Lightricks
2.7%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lightricks
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$192
Trade this on Polymarket
Luma AI
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luma AI
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Polymarket
xAI
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
xAI
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$179K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alibaba
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Baidu
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baidu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
DeepSeek
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moonshot AI
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moonshot AI
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$81K
Trade this on Kalshi
Z.ai
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Kalshi
Runway
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Runway
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Polymarket
Tencent
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
Kandinsky
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kandinsky
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$166
Trade this on Polymarket
Genmo AI
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Genmo AI
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Polymarket
KlingAI
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 51s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
KlingAI
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Google on Kalshi at 4¢, sell on Polymarket at 48¢ (4400 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: LiveBench.ai
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anthropic
  • Meta
  • Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Anthropic for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of December?". Anthropic leads at 75%. Next is Meta at 32.6%. $1.2M has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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