The Prediction Markets

Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 38 days
Traded
$1.2M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Anthropic 80%

Next is Google at 20.6%. The venues differ most on Google (Polymarket 76.5%, Kalshi 2%), a 75-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Anthropic
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Anthropic
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$274K
Trade this on Kalshi
GoogleArb
20.6%
Polymarket 76.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Google
Last price
76.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Google
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$205K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 3¢ and selling on Polymarket at 74¢ nets 7100 bps before fees.

ByteDance
15%
Polymarket 15%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $641 (6.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.6¢
Sell Yes
14.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$641 (6.41x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
OpenAIArb
12.9%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$588
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
OpenAI
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$217K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 15¢ nets 1400 bps before fees.

KlingAI
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
KlingAI
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$464
Trade this on Polymarket
Lightricks
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lightricks
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$416
Trade this on Polymarket
Meta
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meta
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$460
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$623
Trade this on Polymarket
xAI
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
xAI
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$179K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alibaba
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 15 more outcomes
Baidu
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baidu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
DeepSeek
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$93K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moonshot AI
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moonshot AI
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$81K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pika
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pika
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$607
Trade this on Polymarket
Z.ai
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$69K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kandinsky
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kandinsky
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$501
Trade this on Polymarket
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$629
Trade this on Polymarket
Genmo AI
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Genmo AI
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$364
Trade this on Polymarket
Black Forest Labs
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Black Forest Labs
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Polymarket
Luma AI
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luma AI
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Polymarket
Pixverse
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pixverse
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Polymarket
Pruna
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pruna
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Polymarket
Runway
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Runway
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$412
Trade this on Polymarket
SpaceXAI
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
SpaceXAI
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$491
Trade this on Polymarket
Tencent
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$383
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Google on Kalshi at 3¢, sell on Polymarket at 74¢ (7100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: arena.ai
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: LiveBench.ai
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 1, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Anthropic
  • Google
  • ByteDance

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Anthropic for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?". Anthropic leads at 80%. Next is Google at 20.6%. $1.2M has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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