The Prediction Markets

Which countries will Clavicular visit in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$37K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Colombia 36.5%

Next is Japan at 30%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Colombia
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colombia
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket
Japan
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Japan
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Brazil
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $207 (2.07x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brazil
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48.3¢
Sell Yes
10.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$207 (2.07x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Thailand
23.7%
Polymarket 23.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 46.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $216 (2.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thailand
Last price
23.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
46.2¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$216 (2.16x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
South Korea
17.1%
Polymarket 17.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
South Korea
Last price
17.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
12.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
United Kingdom
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
United Kingdom
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Philippines
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Philippines
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Russia
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$194
Trade this on Polymarket
Germany
7.9%
Polymarket 7.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $870 (8.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Germany
Last price
7.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.5¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$870 (8.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
China
5.2%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
China
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Iran
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iran
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
North Korea
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
North Korea
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Colombia
  • Japan
  • Brazil

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which countries will Clavicular visit in 2026?". Colombia leads at 36.5%. Next is Japan at 30%. $37K has traded across 12 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

If Clavicular, otherwise known as Braden Peters, visits a listed country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Clavicular physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Clavicular enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For the purposes of this market, "China" includes all territory administered by the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions, excluding Taiwan. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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