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What the markets expect
Michigan 98%
Next is Mississippi at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Michigan98%Not listed98%93¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 2 min ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Michigan98%Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Michigan
98%
Not listed
98%
93¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Michigan
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michigan
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 93¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $455
Mississippi98%Not listed98%95¢ bid, 98¢ askpolled, 2 min ago98¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $102 (1.02x)Mississippi98%Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Mississippi
98%
Not listed
98%
95¢ bid, 98¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
98¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Mississippi
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mississippi
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98¢
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $102 (1.02x)
- Volume
- $2K
Pennsylvania25%Not listed25%25¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 2 min ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Pennsylvania25%Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Pennsylvania
25%
Not listed
25%
25¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Pennsylvania
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Pennsylvania
- Last price
- 25%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $5K
Japan14.5%14.5%13¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Japan14.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Japan
14.5%
14.5%
13¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Japan
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Japan
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $26K
Saudi Arabia14.5%14.5%12¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Saudi Arabia14.5%Polymarket 14.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Saudi Arabia
14.5%
14.5%
12¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Saudi Arabia
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Saudi Arabia
- Last price
- 14.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $1K
Germany14%14%13¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Germany14%Polymarket 14%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Germany
14%
14%
13¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Germany
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Germany
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $21K
Israel12.5%12.5%9¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)Israel12.5%Polymarket 12.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Israel
12.5%
12.5%
9¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Israel
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Israel
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $32K
Wisconsin12%Not listed12%12¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 2 min ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Wisconsin12%Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Wisconsin
12%
Not listed
12%
12¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Wisconsin
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wisconsin
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $2K
South Korea11.5%11.5%6¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)South Korea11.5%Polymarket 11.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
South Korea
11.5%
11.5%
6¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
South Korea
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- South Korea
- Last price
- 11.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $17K
Portugal10.4%10.4%0.8¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Portugal10.4%Polymarket 10.4%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Portugal
10.4%
10.4%
0.8¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Portugal
10.4%
Polymarket 10.4%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Portugal
- Last price
- 10.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $151
Show 17 more outcomesHide 17 outcomes
Venezuela9%9%6¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed12¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Venezuela9%Polymarket 9%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Venezuela
9%
9%
6¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
12¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Venezuela
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Venezuela
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $245
Italy7.5%7.5%6¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Italy7.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Italy
7.5%
7.5%
6¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Italy
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Italy
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $31K
Syria7.5%7.5%6¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Syria7.5%Polymarket 7.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Syria
7.5%
7.5%
6¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Syria
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Syria
- Last price
- 7.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $2K
Russia7.1%7.1%5.1¢ bid, 9.1¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed9.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)Russia7.1%Polymarket 7.1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Russia
7.1%
7.1%
5.1¢ bid, 9.1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
9.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Russia
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 9.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,099 (11.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Russia
- Last price
- 7.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 5.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,099 (11.0x)
- Volume
- $13K
North Korea7%7%6¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)North Korea7%Polymarket 7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
North Korea
7%
7%
6¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
North Korea
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- North Korea
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $46K
Oman6.6%6.6%1.3¢ bid, 11.8¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed11.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $847 (8.47x)Oman6.6%Polymarket 6.6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Oman
6.6%
6.6%
1.3¢ bid, 11.8¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
11.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Oman
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $847 (8.47x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Oman
- Last price
- 6.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 11.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $847 (8.47x)
- Volume
- $4K
Before Jul 1, 20276%Not listed6%2¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 3 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Before Jul 1, 20276%Kalshi 6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Before Jul 1, 2027
6%
Not listed
6%
2¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Before Jul 1, 2027
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
India6%6%5¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)India6%Polymarket 6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
India
6%
6%
5¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
India
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- India
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $15K
Ukraine5.7%5.7%3.5¢ bid, 7.8¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed7.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)Ukraine5.7%Polymarket 5.7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Ukraine
5.7%
5.7%
3.5¢ bid, 7.8¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
7.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Ukraine
5.7%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ukraine
- Last price
- 5.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,282 (12.8x)
- Volume
- $7K
Mexico5%5%4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Mexico5%Polymarket 5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Mexico
5%
5%
4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Mexico
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Mexico
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $6K
New Hampshire5%Not listed5%4¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 2 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)New Hampshire5%Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
New Hampshire
5%
Not listed
5%
4¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
New Hampshire
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- New Hampshire
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $6K
Belarus4.8%4.8%2.9¢ bid, 6.7¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed6.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)Belarus4.8%Polymarket 4.8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Belarus
4.8%
4.8%
2.9¢ bid, 6.7¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
6.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Belarus
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Belarus
- Last price
- 4.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,493 (14.9x)
- Volume
- $5K
Pakistan4.5%4.5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Pakistan4.5%Polymarket 4.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Pakistan
4.5%
4.5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Pakistan
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Pakistan
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $8K
Canada3.1%3.1%2.1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Canada3.1%Polymarket 3.1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Canada
3.1%
3.1%
2.1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Canada
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Canada
- Last price
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $5K
Taiwan3%3%2.8¢ bid, 3.1¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed3.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)Taiwan3%Polymarket 3%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Taiwan
3%
3%
2.8¢ bid, 3.1¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
3.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Taiwan
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Taiwan
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,226 (32.3x)
- Volume
- $88K
Before Jan 1, 20272.1%Not listed2.1%2.1¢ bid, 2.9¢ askpolled, 3 min ago2.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)Before Jan 1, 20272.1%Kalshi 2.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Before Jan 1, 2027
2.1%
Not listed
2.1%
2.1¢ bid, 2.9¢ ask
polled, 3 min ago
2.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Before Jan 1, 2027
2.1%
Kalshi 2.1%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- Last price
- 2.1%
- As of
- Polled 3 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,448 (34.5x)
- Volume
- $421K
Lebanon1.1%1.1%0.3¢ bid, 1.9¢ askpolled, 22s agoNot listed1.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)Lebanon1.1%Polymarket 1.1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Lebanon
1.1%
1.1%
0.3¢ bid, 1.9¢ ask
polled, 22s ago
Not listed
1.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Lebanon
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Lebanon
- Last price
- 1.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,263 (52.6x)
- Volume
- $33K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitter.com
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Guardian, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Iran, Donald Trump
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Michigan
- Mississippi
- Pennsylvania
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Michigan for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?". Michigan leads at 98%. Next is Mississippi at 98%. $1.1M has traded across 27 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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