The Prediction Markets

Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$81K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Uganda 32%

Next is Democratic Republic of the Congo at 12%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Uganda
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Uganda
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$934
Trade this on Kalshi
Democratic Republic of the Congo
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Syria
8.9%
Kalshi 8.9%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Syria
Last price
8.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lebanon
8.3%
Kalshi 8.3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lebanon
Last price
8.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yemen
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yemen
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Iran
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iran
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Kalshi
Burma (Myanmar)
6.1%
Kalshi 6.1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,639 (16.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Burma (Myanmar)
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.1¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,639 (16.4x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Kalshi
Ukraine
5.7%
Kalshi 5.7%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ukraine
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Haiti
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haiti
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
South Sudan
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 5.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,754 (17.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
South Sudan
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,754 (17.5x)
Volume
$533
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Russia
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 3.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,857 (28.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Russia
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.5¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,857 (28.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Somalia
2.8%
Kalshi 2.8%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Somalia
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Iraq
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 6.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,587 (15.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iraq
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.3¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,587 (15.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Afghanistan
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Afghanistan
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gaza
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gaza
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$419
Trade this on Kalshi
Libya
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Libya
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$279
Trade this on Kalshi
North Korea
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
North Korea
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Kalshi
Sudan
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sudan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$265
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the U.S. State Department

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Uganda
  • Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Syria

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which countries will have their US Travel Advisory downgraded in 2026?". Uganda leads at 32%. Next is Democratic Republic of the Congo at 12%. $81K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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