What are the odds of Venezuela in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31??

Venezuela is currently priced at 8.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Indonesia in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31??

Indonesia is currently priced at 7.3% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Lebanon in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31??

Lebanon is currently priced at 7% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Tunisia in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31??

Tunisia is currently priced at 5.5% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Iraq in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31??

Iraq is currently priced at 4.2% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Pakistan in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31??

Pakistan is currently priced at 4.2% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Saudi Arabia in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31??

Saudi Arabia is currently priced at 3.9% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Syria in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31??

Syria is currently priced at 3.6% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of Cuba in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31??

Cuba is currently priced at 3.4% in prediction markets.

What are the odds of North Korea in Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31??

North Korea is currently priced at 3.4% in prediction markets.

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Closes: Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded: $949K
Venues: Polymarket
Prices updated: 2 min ago

What the markets expect

Venezuela 8.5%

Next is Indonesia at 7.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

Polymarket

Outcome

Consensus

Venue prices on a 0–100% scale

Polymarket

Best Yes price

Venezuela

8.5%

8¢ bid, 9¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

9¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

Venezuela

8.5%

Polymarket 8.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)

Polymarket

Contract: Venezuela
Last price: 8.5%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 9¢
Sell Yes: 8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,111 (11.1x)
Volume: $393K

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Indonesia

7.3%

6.6¢ bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Indonesia

7.3%

Polymarket 7.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Indonesia
Last price: 7.3%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: 6.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $30K

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Lebanon

6¢ bid, 8¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Lebanon

Polymarket 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Lebanon
Last price: 7%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 8¢
Sell Yes: 6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,250 (12.5x)
Volume: $125K

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Tunisia

5.5%

5¢ bid, 6¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Tunisia

5.5%

Polymarket 5.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)

Polymarket

Contract: Tunisia
Last price: 5.5%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 6¢
Sell Yes: 5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $1,667 (16.7x)
Volume: $24K

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Iraq

4.2%

4¢ bid, 4.3¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

4.3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)

Iraq

4.2%

Polymarket 4.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,326 (23.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Iraq
Last price: 4.2%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 4.3¢
Sell Yes: 4¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,326 (23.3x)
Volume: $18K

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Pakistan

4.2%

4.1¢ bid, 4.2¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

4.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)

Pakistan

4.2%

Polymarket 4.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)

Polymarket

Contract: Pakistan
Last price: 4.2%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 4.2¢
Sell Yes: 4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,381 (23.8x)
Volume: $27K

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Saudi Arabia

3.9%

3¢ bid, 4.8¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

4.8¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)

Saudi Arabia

3.9%

Polymarket 3.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)

Polymarket

Contract: Saudi Arabia
Last price: 3.9%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 4.8¢
Sell Yes: 3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,083 (20.8x)
Volume: $88K

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Syria

3.6%

3.1¢ bid, 4¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Syria

3.6%

Polymarket 3.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Syria
Last price: 3.6%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 4¢
Sell Yes: 3.1¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,500 (25.0x)
Volume: $23K

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Cuba

3.4%

3.3¢ bid, 3.4¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

3.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)

Cuba

3.4%

Polymarket 3.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)

Polymarket

Contract: Cuba
Last price: 3.4%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 3.4¢
Sell Yes: 3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,941 (29.4x)
Volume: $16K

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North Korea

3.4%

3.3¢ bid, 3.4¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

3.4¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)

North Korea

3.4%

Polymarket 3.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)

Polymarket

Contract: North Korea
Last price: 3.4%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 3.4¢
Sell Yes: 3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,941 (29.4x)
Volume: $24K

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Show 6 more outcomes

Kuwait

3.3%

2.8¢ bid, 3.7¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

3.7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)

Kuwait

3.3%

Polymarket 3.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Kuwait
Last price: 3.3%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 3.7¢
Sell Yes: 2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays: $2,703 (27.0x)
Volume: $31K

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Iran

2.9%

2.5¢ bid, 3.2¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

3.2¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)

Iran

2.9%

Polymarket 2.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,125 (31.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Iran
Last price: 2.9%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 3.2¢
Sell Yes: 2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,125 (31.3x)
Volume: $21K

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Qatar

2.7%

2.6¢ bid, 2.7¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

2.7¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)

Qatar

2.7%

Polymarket 2.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)

Polymarket

Contract: Qatar
Last price: 2.7%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 2.7¢
Sell Yes: 2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,704 (37.0x)
Volume: $52K

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Malaysia

2.6%

2.5¢ bid, 2.6¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

2.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)

Malaysia

2.6%

Polymarket 2.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,846 (38.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Malaysia
Last price: 2.6%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 2.6¢
Sell Yes: 2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,846 (38.5x)
Volume: $15K

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Afghanistan

2.5%

1.9¢ bid, 3¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

3¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)

Afghanistan

2.5%

Polymarket 2.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)

Polymarket

Contract: Afghanistan
Last price: 2.5%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 3¢
Sell Yes: 1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays: $3,333 (33.3x)
Volume: $45K

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Bangladesh

1.5%

1.3¢ bid, 1.6¢ ask

polled, 2 min ago

1.6¢ on Polymarket

$100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)

Bangladesh

1.5%

Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)

Polymarket

Contract: Bangladesh
Last price: 1.5%
As of: Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes: 1.6¢
Sell Yes: 1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays: $6,250 (62.5x)
Volume: $17K

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Who resolves this market

Polymarket resolves via:: UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

Venezuela
Indonesia
Lebanon

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Outcome

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting

Best bid

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Spread

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Best ask

—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

Stake

Buy

Outcome to buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?". Venezuela leads at 8.5%. Next is Indonesia at 7.3%. $949K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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What the markets expect

Odds by venue

Who resolves this market

How the odds have moved

Order books

Polymarket

Top of book

Depth · top 8 levels

Recent trades

What your stake buys

About this market

Questions

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