The Prediction Markets

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$864K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Belgium 13%

Next is Finland at 8.5%. The venues differ most on Greece (Polymarket 7%, Kalshi 2.2%), a 4.8-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Belgium
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Belgium
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$80K
Trade this on Polymarket
Finland
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 8.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,053 (10.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Finland
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Finland
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9.5¢.

USA
8.4%
Kalshi 8.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
USA
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Italy
7.6%
Polymarket 7%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 8.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Italy
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Italy
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8.8¢.

New Zealand
7.4%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 7.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Zealand
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$125K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New Zealand
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

The Netherlands
7.4%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Netherlands
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Netherlands
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Singapore
6.8%
Kalshi 6.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Singapore
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$946
Trade this on Kalshi
Greece
5.8%
Polymarket 7%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 2.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greece
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10.8¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$926 (9.26x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Greece
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8.6¢.

Germany
5.5%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 8.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Germany
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$130K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Germany
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.8¢.

United States
5.3%
Polymarket 5.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
United States
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Austria
5.2%
Polymarket 4%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 8.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,852 (18.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Austria
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$173K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Austria
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.4¢.

Japan
4.2%
Polymarket 4.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Japan
Last price
4.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Japan
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Israel
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Polymarket
Switzerland
3.2%
Kalshi 3.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Switzerland
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Panama
2.8%
Kalshi 2.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Panama
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
South Korea
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
South Korea
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$484
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Belgium
  • Finland
  • USA

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Belgium for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?". Belgium leads at 13%. Next is Finland at 8.5%. $864K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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