The Prediction Markets

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$530K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Central African Republic 58%

Next is South Sudan at 42.3%. The venues differ most on India (Polymarket 13%, Kalshi 8%), a 5.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Central African Republic
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Central African Republic
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
South Sudan
42.3%
Polymarket 40%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 43%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
South Sudan
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
South Sudan
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 41¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 49¢.

Somalia
31.1%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 31%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Somalia
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$539
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Somalia
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 21¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 31¢.

Republic of the Congo
22.7%
Polymarket 25%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 22%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Republic of the Congo
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Republic of the Congo
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$92K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 20¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 22¢.

Rwanda
20.5%
Polymarket 22%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rwanda
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rwanda
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 19¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 22¢.

Tanzania
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tanzania
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Burundi
15.6%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Burundi
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$334
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Burundi
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 24¢.

Ethiopia
14.6%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ethiopia
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$585
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ethiopia
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 14¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

IndiaArb
9.3%
Polymarket 13%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
India
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$868
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
India
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

United StatesArb
8.3%
Polymarket 12%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
United States
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
United States
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$85K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Show 4 more outcomes
China
8.1%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
China
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
China
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Zambia
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zambia
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Angola
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Angola
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Canada
6.5%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Canada
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Canada
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy India on Kalshi at 8¢, sell on Polymarket at 9¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the relevant national, international, or subnational health agencies for ,, Bloomberg, CDC
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Central African Republic
  • South Sudan
  • Somalia

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Central African Republic for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?". Central African Republic leads at 58%. Next is South Sudan at 42.3%. $530K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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