The Prediction Markets

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$404K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Canada 12%

Next is Israel at 12%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Canada
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Canada
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Israel
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Israel
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$906
Trade this on Polymarket
Vietnam
11.4%
Polymarket 11.4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 13.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $730 (7.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vietnam
Last price
11.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.7¢
Sell Yes
9.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$730 (7.30x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Japan
11.1%
Polymarket 11.1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 19.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $505 (5.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Japan
Last price
11.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.8¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$505 (5.05x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Australia
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Australia
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
India
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
India
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$73K
Trade this on Polymarket
United Kingdom
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
United Kingdom
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$649
Trade this on Polymarket
Taiwan
9.9%
Polymarket 9.9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 13.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $758 (7.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taiwan
Last price
9.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.2¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$758 (7.58x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mexico
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mexico
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pakistan
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pakistan
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$106K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Russia
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russia
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
South Korea
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 13.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $719 (7.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
South Korea
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$719 (7.19x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Polymarket
Argentina
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Argentina
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Indonesia
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Indonesia
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
South Africa
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
South Africa
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
Brazil
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 9.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,042 (10.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brazil
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.6¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,042 (10.4x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
European Union
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Union
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Canada
  • Israel
  • Vietnam

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?". Canada leads at 12%. Next is Israel at 12%. $404K has traded across 17 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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