The Prediction Markets

Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?

Closes
Jul 1, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$240K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

The Odyssey 84.7%

Next is Dune: Messiah at 14.3%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

The Odyssey 84.7%Dune: Messiah 14.3%Wild Horse Nine 0.5%Project Hail Mary 0.3%Disclosure Day 0.1%The Bride! 0.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
The Odyssey
84.7%
Polymarket 83.5%(84.7% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Odyssey
Last price
83.5%
Fair, margin removed
84.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$77K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dune: Messiah
14.3%
Polymarket 14.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 14.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $690 (6.90x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dune: Messiah
Last price
14.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
14.5¢
Sell Yes
13.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$690 (6.90x)
Volume
$116K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wild Horse Nine
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wild Horse Nine
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Project Hail Mary
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Project Hail Mary
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Disclosure Day
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Disclosure Day
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Bride!
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Bride!
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Social Reckoning
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Social Reckoning
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wuthering Heights
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wuthering Heights
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: oscars.org

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • The Odyssey
  • Dune: Messiah
  • Wild Horse Nine

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?". The Odyssey leads at 84.7%. Next is Dune: Messiah at 14.3%. $240K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. This market will resolve according to the film which is nominated for the greatest number of Oscars at the 99th Academy Awards, currently expected to take place in March of 2027. A film will be considered to be nominated for an award if it or members of its crew, cast, or production are nominated for an award for work related to that film. In the event of a tie for the greatest number of nominations, this market will resolve in favor of the film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. If for any reason no nominations are announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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