Top of book
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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Anatoly Yakovenko 50%
Next is Michael Saylor at 49.9%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 25 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Anatoly Yakovenko50%50%0.7¢ bid, 99.2¢ askpolled, 25 min ago99.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Anatoly Yakovenko50%Polymarket 50%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Anatoly Yakovenko
50%
50%
0.7¢ bid, 99.2¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
99.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Anatoly Yakovenko
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Anatoly Yakovenko
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $124
Michael Saylor49.9%49.9%0.6¢ bid, 99.2¢ askpolled, 25 min ago99.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Michael Saylor49.9%Polymarket 49.9%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Michael Saylor
49.9%
49.9%
0.6¢ bid, 99.2¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
99.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Michael Saylor
49.9%
Polymarket 49.9%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 99.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Michael Saylor
- Last price
- 49.9%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 99.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $182
Javier Milei45%45%3¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, 25 min ago87¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $115 (1.15x)Javier Milei45%Polymarket 45%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Javier Milei
45%
45%
3¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
87¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Javier Milei
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Javier Milei
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $188
Martin Shkreli45%45%3¢ bid, 87¢ askpolled, 25 min ago87¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $115 (1.15x)Martin Shkreli45%Polymarket 45%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Martin Shkreli
45%
45%
3¢ bid, 87¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
87¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Martin Shkreli
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Martin Shkreli
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 87¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $161
Su Zhu43.9%43.9%0.6¢ bid, 87.2¢ askpolled, 25 min ago87.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $115 (1.15x)Su Zhu43.9%Polymarket 43.9%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 87.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Su Zhu
43.9%
43.9%
0.6¢ bid, 87.2¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
87.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Su Zhu
43.9%
Polymarket 43.9%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 87.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Su Zhu
- Last price
- 43.9%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 87.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $115 (1.15x)
- Volume
- $175
Guy Young42.9%42.9%3.2¢ bid, 82.6¢ askpolled, 25 min ago82.6¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $121 (1.21x)Guy Young42.9%Polymarket 42.9%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 82.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $121 (1.21x)
Guy Young
42.9%
42.9%
3.2¢ bid, 82.6¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
82.6¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $121 (1.21x)
Guy Young
42.9%
Polymarket 42.9%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 82.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $121 (1.21x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Guy Young
- Last price
- 42.9%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 82.6¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $121 (1.21x)
- Volume
- $6K
GCR40.5%40.5%0.5¢ bid, 80.4¢ askpolled, 25 min ago80.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $124 (1.24x)GCR40.5%Polymarket 40.5%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 80.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $124 (1.24x)
GCR
40.5%
40.5%
0.5¢ bid, 80.4¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
80.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $124 (1.24x)
GCR
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 80.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $124 (1.24x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- GCR
- Last price
- 40.5%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 80.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $124 (1.24x)
- Volume
- $365
light39.9%39.9%3¢ bid, 76.7¢ askpolled, 25 min ago76.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $130 (1.30x)light39.9%Polymarket 39.9%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 76.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
light
39.9%
39.9%
3¢ bid, 76.7¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
76.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
light
39.9%
Polymarket 39.9%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 76.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- light
- Last price
- 39.9%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 76.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $47
Jesse Pollak38.4%38.4%0.5¢ bid, 76.3¢ askpolled, 25 min ago76.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $131 (1.31x)Jesse Pollak38.4%Polymarket 38.4%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 76.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $131 (1.31x)
Jesse Pollak
38.4%
38.4%
0.5¢ bid, 76.3¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
76.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $131 (1.31x)
Jesse Pollak
38.4%
Polymarket 38.4%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 76.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $131 (1.31x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jesse Pollak
- Last price
- 38.4%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 76.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $131 (1.31x)
- Volume
- $632
Andrew Kang37.1%37.1%0.7¢ bid, 73.5¢ askpolled, 25 min ago73.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $136 (1.36x)Andrew Kang37.1%Polymarket 37.1%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 73.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $136 (1.36x)
Andrew Kang
37.1%
37.1%
0.7¢ bid, 73.5¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
73.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $136 (1.36x)
Andrew Kang
37.1%
Polymarket 37.1%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 73.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $136 (1.36x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Andrew Kang
- Last price
- 37.1%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 73.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $136 (1.36x)
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Gainzy34.9%34.9%0.6¢ bid, 69.2¢ askpolled, 25 min ago69.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $145 (1.45x)Gainzy34.9%Polymarket 34.9%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 69.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Gainzy
34.9%
34.9%
0.6¢ bid, 69.2¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
69.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Gainzy
34.9%
Polymarket 34.9%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 69.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Gainzy
- Last price
- 34.9%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 69.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $141
Ansem31.6%31.6%3.2¢ bid, 60¢ askpolled, 25 min ago60¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $167 (1.67x)Ansem31.6%Polymarket 31.6%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Ansem
31.6%
31.6%
3.2¢ bid, 60¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
60¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Ansem
31.6%
Polymarket 31.6%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Ansem
- Last price
- 31.6%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 60¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $167 (1.67x)
- Volume
- $4K
ThreadGuy29.8%29.8%17.3¢ bid, 42.2¢ askpolled, 25 min ago42.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $237 (2.37x)ThreadGuy29.8%Polymarket 29.8%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 42.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $237 (2.37x)
ThreadGuy
29.8%
29.8%
17.3¢ bid, 42.2¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
42.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $237 (2.37x)
ThreadGuy
29.8%
Polymarket 29.8%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 42.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $237 (2.37x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- ThreadGuy
- Last price
- 29.8%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 42.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 17.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $237 (2.37x)
- Volume
- $12K
Jeff Yan28%28%2.8¢ bid, 53.1¢ askpolled, 25 min ago53.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $188 (1.88x)Jeff Yan28%Polymarket 28%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 53.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $188 (1.88x)
Jeff Yan
28%
28%
2.8¢ bid, 53.1¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
53.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $188 (1.88x)
Jeff Yan
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 53.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $188 (1.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Jeff Yan
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 53.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $188 (1.88x)
- Volume
- $2K
CZ25.4%25.4%1¢ bid, 49.8¢ askpolled, 25 min ago49.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $201 (2.01x)CZ25.4%Polymarket 25.4%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 49.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $201 (2.01x)
CZ
25.4%
25.4%
1¢ bid, 49.8¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
49.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $201 (2.01x)
CZ
25.4%
Polymarket 25.4%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 49.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $201 (2.01x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- CZ
- Last price
- 25.4%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 49.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $201 (2.01x)
- Volume
- $467
SBF25.2%25.2%0.5¢ bid, 49.9¢ askpolled, 25 min ago49.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $200 (2.00x)SBF25.2%Polymarket 25.2%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 49.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
SBF
25.2%
25.2%
0.5¢ bid, 49.9¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
49.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
SBF
25.2%
Polymarket 25.2%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 49.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- SBF
- Last price
- 25.2%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 49.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
- Volume
- $2K
Arthur Hayes12.5%12.5%1¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 25 min ago24¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Arthur Hayes12.5%Polymarket 12.5%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Arthur Hayes
12.5%
12.5%
1¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
24¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Arthur Hayes
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Arthur Hayes
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $3K
thiccy12.5%12.5%2¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, 25 min ago23¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $435 (4.35x)thiccy12.5%Polymarket 12.5%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
thiccy
12.5%
12.5%
2¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
23¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
thiccy
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- thiccy
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $174
Brian Armstrong7.3%7.3%1.7¢ bid, 12.9¢ askpolled, 25 min ago12.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $775 (7.75x)Brian Armstrong7.3%Polymarket 7.3%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 12.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Brian Armstrong
7.3%
7.3%
1.7¢ bid, 12.9¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
12.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Brian Armstrong
7.3%
Polymarket 7.3%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 12.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $775 (7.75x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Brian Armstrong
- Last price
- 7.3%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 12.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $775 (7.75x)
- Volume
- $4K
Vitalik Buterin5.9%5.9%1.2¢ bid, 10.5¢ askpolled, 25 min ago10.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $952 (9.52x)Vitalik Buterin5.9%Polymarket 5.9%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Vitalik Buterin
5.9%
5.9%
1.2¢ bid, 10.5¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
10.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Vitalik Buterin
5.9%
Polymarket 5.9%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Vitalik Buterin
- Last price
- 5.9%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $952 (9.52x)
- Volume
- $454
Thomas Lee1.4%1.4%0.7¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 25 min ago2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Thomas Lee1.4%Polymarket 1.4%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Thomas Lee
1.4%
1.4%
0.7¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 25 min ago
2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Thomas Lee
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 25 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Thomas Lee
- Last price
- 1.4%
- As of
- Polled 25 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $209
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Anatoly Yakovenko
- Michael Saylor
- Javier Milei
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Which guests will appear on the UpOnly podcast before 2027?". Anatoly Yakovenko leads at 50%. Next is Michael Saylor at 49.9%. $36K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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