The Prediction Markets

Which lists will win a Knesset seat?

Closes
Oct 27, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$26K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Likud 98%

Next is Ra'am at 98%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Likud
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 18s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Likud
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Ra'am
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 18s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Ra'am
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
91¢
Volume
$234
Trade this on Kalshi
Together
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 18s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Together
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Otzma Yehudit
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 18s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Otzma Yehudit
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Yashar
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 18s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Yashar
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$338
Trade this on Kalshi
Yisrael Beiteinu
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yisrael Beiteinu
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Kalshi
The Democrats
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 18s ago
Kalshi
Contract
The Democrats
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad)
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Shas
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 18s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Shas
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$898
Trade this on Kalshi
United Torah Judaism
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 18s ago
Kalshi
Contract
United Torah Judaism
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
92¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 13 more outcomes
RZP-Zehut
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
RZP-Zehut
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$436
Trade this on Kalshi
Reservists–Economic Party
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reservists–Economic Party
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
People of Israel
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
People of Israel
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Religious Zionist Party
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Religious Zionist Party
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Haredi Public
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Haredi Public
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$159
Trade this on Kalshi
Zehut
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zehut
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$726
Trade this on Kalshi
Blue and White
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Blue and White
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$285
Trade this on Kalshi
New Economic Party
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Economic Party
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Unity
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Unity
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$52
Trade this on Kalshi
Israel First
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Israel First
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$799
Trade this on Kalshi
Zionist Home–The Reservists
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zionist Home–The Reservists
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
A Place for All of Us
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
A Place for All of Us
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$893
Trade this on Kalshi
Noam for Israel
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 18s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Noam for Israel
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$748
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Elections Committee

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Likud
  • Ra'am
  • Together

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which lists will win a Knesset seat?". Likud leads at 98%. Next is Ra'am at 98%. $26K has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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