The Prediction Markets

Which local officials will be recalled?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
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What the markets expect

Brian Pillmore 99%

Next is Andrew Greenberg at 98%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Brian Pillmore
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brian Pillmore
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Andrew Greenberg
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrew Greenberg
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Kalshi
Bill Bean
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Bean
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Christina Price
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christina Price
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$653
Trade this on Kalshi
Elaine Ferris
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elaine Ferris
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$353
Trade this on Kalshi
Harry Thomas
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Thomas
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
James Vetter
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Vetter
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Jerry Cain
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jerry Cain
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$807
Trade this on Kalshi
Laurie DeShano
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Laurie DeShano
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$457
Trade this on Kalshi
Evan Hickman
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Evan Hickman
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Brett Kemble
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brett Kemble
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Amanda Kimbel-Sparks
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amanda Kimbel-Sparks
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Kalshi
Sheila Coats
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sheila Coats
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Susan Ptaszenski
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Susan Ptaszenski
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Wexford County Clerk, Champaign County Board of Elections, Bay County Clerk

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Brian Pillmore
  • Andrew Greenberg
  • Bill Bean

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which local officials will be recalled?". Brian Pillmore leads at 99%. Next is Andrew Greenberg at 98%. $4K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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