The Prediction Markets

Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$29K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Susan Collins 15%

Next is Roger Williams at 9.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Susan Collins
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Susan Collins
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$973
Trade this on Kalshi
Roger Williams
9.8%
Kalshi 9.8%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roger Williams
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
8.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$715
Trade this on Kalshi
Nancy Pelosi
5.3%
Kalshi 5.3%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 5.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,887 (18.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nancy Pelosi
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.3¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,887 (18.9x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ron Wyden
4.3%
Kalshi 4.3%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ron Wyden
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$989
Trade this on Kalshi
David Kustoff
3.7%
Kalshi 3.7%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Kustoff
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Debbie Wasserman-Schultz
2.3%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Debbie Wasserman-Schultz
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Morgan McGarvey
1.4%
Kalshi 1.4%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Morgan McGarvey
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$628
Trade this on Kalshi
David Rouzer
1.2%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
David Rouzer
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Larry Bucshon
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Larry Bucshon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete Sessions
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Sessions
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$564
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: United States House and Senate annual financial disclosure reports

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Susan Collins
  • Roger Williams
  • Nancy Pelosi

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which member of Congress will have the biggest returns in 2025?". Susan Collins leads at 15%. Next is Roger Williams at 9.8%. $29K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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