The Prediction Markets

Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?

Closes
Jan 1, 2045, in 222 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
50 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Hodge Conjecture 47.6%

Next is Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture at 27.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Hodge Conjecture 47.6%Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture 27.2%Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem 19.4%Riemann Hypothesis 3.9%P versus NP Problem 1.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 50 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Hodge Conjecture
47.6%
Kalshi 49%(47.6% fair)polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hodge Conjecture
Last price
49%
Fair, margin removed
47.6%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture
27.2%
Kalshi 28%(27.2% fair)polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture
Last price
28%
Fair, margin removed
27.2%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$625
Trade this on Kalshi
Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem
19.4%
Kalshi 20%(19.4% fair)polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
19.4%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Riemann Hypothesis
3.9%
Kalshi 4%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Riemann Hypothesis
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$58
Trade this on Kalshi
P versus NP Problem
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 50 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
P versus NP Problem
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 50 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Guardian, National Academy of Sciences of the United States, Financial Times

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Hodge Conjecture
  • Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture
  • Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?". Hodge Conjecture leads at 47.6%. Next is Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture at 27.2%. $3K has traded across 5 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2045.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets