The Prediction Markets

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?

Closed
Aug 1, 2026
Traded
$243K
Venues
Kalshi
Share

This market has closed

Trading ended on Aug 1, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Valar Atomics
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Valar Atomics
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$86K
Trade this on Kalshi
Antares Nuclear
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Antares Nuclear
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Aalo Atomics
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Aalo Atomics
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Kalshi
Atomic Alchemy
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Atomic Alchemy
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oklo
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oklo
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Radiant Industries
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Radiant Industries
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Deep Fission
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deep Fission
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Last Energy
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Last Energy
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Terrestrial Energy
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Terrestrial Energy
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Natura Resources
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3026 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Natura Resources
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: company, company's official website, company's SEC filings

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Valar Atomics
  • Antares Nuclear
  • Aalo Atomics

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?". Valar Atomics last traded at 95%. Next is Antares Nuclear at 90%. $243K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Aug 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More other markets

See all other markets