The Prediction Markets

Which of these African leaders will leave office next?

Closes
Jan 1, 2035, in 100 months
Traded
$25K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Bola Tinubu 28.3%

Next is Cyril Ramaphosa at 15.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Bola Tinubu 28.3%Cyril Ramaphosa 15.6%Abdel Fattah el-Sisi 11.3%Abdelmadjid Tebboune 9.2%Félix Tshisekedi 7.8%5 others 27.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Bola Tinubu
28.3%
Kalshi 20%(28.3% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bola Tinubu
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
28.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Cyril Ramaphosa
15.6%
Kalshi 11%(15.6% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cyril Ramaphosa
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
15.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
11.3%
Kalshi 8%(11.3% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
11.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Abdelmadjid Tebboune
9.2%
Kalshi 6.5%(9.2% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abdelmadjid Tebboune
Last price
6.5%
Fair, margin removed
9.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Kalshi
Félix Tshisekedi
7.8%
Kalshi 5.5%(7.8% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Félix Tshisekedi
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
John Mahama
7.8%
Kalshi 5.5%(7.8% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 5.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,818 (18.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Mahama
Last price
5.5%
Fair, margin removed
7.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$252
Trade this on Kalshi
Paul Kagame
6.4%
Kalshi 4.5%(6.4% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paul Kagame
Last price
4.5%
Fair, margin removed
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Taye Atske Selassie
6.4%
Kalshi 4.5%(6.4% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taye Atske Selassie
Last price
4.5%
Fair, margin removed
6.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
William Ruto
4.4%
Kalshi 3.1%(4.4% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
William Ruto
Last price
3.1%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Emmerson Mnangagwa
2.8%
Kalshi 2%(2.8% fair)polled, 30s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emmerson Mnangagwa
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bola Tinubu
  • Cyril Ramaphosa
  • Abdel Fattah el-Sisi

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which of these African leaders will leave office next?". Bola Tinubu leads at 28.3%. Next is Cyril Ramaphosa at 15.6%. $25K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2035.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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