The Prediction Markets

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

Closes
Jan 1, 2029, in 27 months
Traded
$107K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Pete Buttigieg 33.8%

Next is Rahm Emanuel at 22%. The venues differ most on Kamala Harris (Polymarket 12%, Kalshi 4.9%), a 7.1-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Pete Buttigieg
33.8%
Polymarket 33%polled, 30s agoKalshi 34%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 24¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 34¢.

Rahm Emanuel
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rahm Emanuel
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andy Beshear
20.9%
Polymarket 17.5%polled, 30s agoKalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
17.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 17¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 21¢.

Gavin Newsom
13.3%
Polymarket 17.3%polled, 30s agoKalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
17.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19.1¢
Sell Yes
15.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$524 (5.24x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 15.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

Ro Khanna
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ro Khanna
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kamala HarrisArb
6.7%
Polymarket 12%polled, 30s agoKalshi 4.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4.9¢ and selling on Polymarket at 11¢ nets 610 bps before fees.

Josh Shapiro
5.8%
Polymarket 9.8%polled, 30s agoKalshi 4.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,273 (22.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
9.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$532 (5.32x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
4.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
3.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.4¢.

J.B. Pritzker
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
J.B. Pritzker
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff
3.4%
Polymarket 2%polled, 30s agoKalshi 3.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$474
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.4¢.

Wes Moore
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
2.2%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 30s agoKalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$579
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Gretchen Whitmer
1.9%
Kalshi 1.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Stewart
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jon Stewart
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$505
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephen A. Smith
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 30s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen A. Smith
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Kamala Harris on Kalshi at 4.9¢, sell on Polymarket at 11¢ (610 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: person, the Federal Election Commission, Ballotpedia
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2029, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 7, 2028, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pete Buttigieg
  • Rahm Emanuel
  • Andy Beshear

Live prices for Pete Buttigieg

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?". Pete Buttigieg leads at 33.8%. Next is Rahm Emanuel at 22%. $107K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2029.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets