The Prediction Markets

Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$6K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Pete Hegseth 40.8%

Next is Nobody at 26.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Pete Hegseth 40.8%Nobody 26.7%Donald Trump 12.2%Clarence Thomas 8%Howard Lutnick 5.6%4 others 6.7%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Pete Hegseth
40.8%
Polymarket 43.5%(40.8% fair)polled, 36s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
43.5%
Fair, margin removed
40.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nobody
26.7%
Polymarket 28.5%(26.7% fair)polled, 36s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nobody
Last price
28.5%
Fair, margin removed
26.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump
12.2%
Polymarket 13%(12.2% fair)polled, 36s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
12.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$679
Trade this on Polymarket
Clarence Thomas
8%
Polymarket 8.5%(8% fair)polled, 36s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Clarence Thomas
Last price
8.5%
Fair, margin removed
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$446
Trade this on Polymarket
Howard Lutnick
5.6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Howard Lutnick
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$354
Trade this on Polymarket
Todd Blanche
2.4%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Todd Blanche
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$168
Trade this on Polymarket
Samuel Alito
1.5%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Samuel Alito
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$257
Trade this on Polymarket
JD Vance
1.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
JD Vance
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$132
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$162
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Pete Hegseth
  • Nobody
  • Donald Trump

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?". Pete Hegseth leads at 40.8%. Next is Nobody at 26.7%. $6K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

This market will resolve according to which of the listed individuals is the first to be the subject of articles of impeachment passed by the United States House of Representatives between market creation and December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Articles of impeachment passed against any individual not listed in this market will not be considered. In the event that articles of impeachment are passed against multiple listed individuals simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of the listed individual, among those with articles of impeachment passed against them, whose last name is first in alphabetical order. In the event that none of the listed individuals is impeached by the United States House of Representatives by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nobody". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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