The Prediction Markets

Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 15 months
Traded
$107K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Ted Cruz 47.5%

Next is J.D. Vance at 36.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ted Cruz
47.5%
Polymarket 47.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ted Cruz
Last price
47.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
J.D. Vance
36.5%
Polymarket 36.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
J.D. Vance
Last price
36.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pete Buttigieg
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Buttigieg
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Andy Beshear
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Beshear
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Marjorie Taylor Greene
20.9%
Polymarket 20.9%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 41.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $242 (2.42x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Last price
20.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$242 (2.42x)
Volume
$217
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump Jr.
18.8%
Polymarket 18.8%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 37.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $269 (2.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump Jr.
Last price
18.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$269 (2.69x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Polymarket
Ron DeSantis
13%
Polymarket 13%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ron DeSantis
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Polymarket
Gavin Newsom
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gavin Newsom
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
J.B. Pritzker
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 5.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,961 (19.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
J.B. Pritzker
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.1¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,961 (19.6x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Marco Rubio
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 8.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,163 (11.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.6¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,163 (11.6x)
Volume
$441
Trade this on Polymarket
Josh Shapiro
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Shapiro
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
3.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vivek Ramaswamy
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vivek Ramaswamy
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Polymarket
Donald Trump
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 7.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,299 (13.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.7¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,299 (13.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jon Ossoff
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wes Moore
3.1%
Kalshi 3.1%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wes Moore
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rand Paul
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Gretchen Whitmer
1.9%
Kalshi 1.9%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gretchen Whitmer
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Glenn Youngkin
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 57s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Glenn Youngkin
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$207
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: person, the Federal Election Commission, Ballotpedia

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ted Cruz
  • J.D. Vance
  • Pete Buttigieg

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Ted Cruz for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which of these Republicans will be the first to announce a run for President?". Ted Cruz leads at 47.5%. Next is J.D. Vance at 36.5%. $107K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Glenn Youngkin, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Marjorie Taylor Greene. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets