The Prediction Markets

Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?

Closes
Jun 30, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$79K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Yashar 68%

Next is The Democrats at 66%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Yashar
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yashar
Last price
68%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Democrats
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 87¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Democrats
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Together
59%
Polymarket 59%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Together
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Yisrael Beiteinu
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yisrael Beiteinu
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
New Economic Party / The Reservists
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Economic Party / The Reservists
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
RZP-Zehut
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
RZP-Zehut
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Otzma Yehudit
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Otzma Yehudit
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Shas
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shas
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Likud
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Likud
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
United Torah Judaism
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
United Torah Judaism
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
Ra'am
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ra'am
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Polymarket
Amcha Yisrael
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amcha Yisrael
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Joint List
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Joint List
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Blue and White
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Blue and White
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Polymarket
Noam
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Noam
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: main.knesset.gov.il

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yashar
  • The Democrats
  • Together

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which parties will be in the next Israeli government?". Yashar leads at 68%. Next is The Democrats at 66%. $79K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 30, 2027.

Parliamentary elections to elect the 26th Knesset are scheduled to take place on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed political party or electoral list is included in the first Israeli government formed after the 2026 Knesset election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve once the composition of the first Israeli government following the 2026 Knesset election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. The government is considered formed when the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party is considered part of the government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Israel and the Knesset.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets