The Prediction Markets

Which parties will be part of the next Government of Denmark?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$125K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 24, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 162 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Moderates
93.6%
Polymarket 93.6%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moderates
Last price
93.6%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
88.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Social Democrats
89.9%
Polymarket 89.9%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 91.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Social Democrats
Last price
89.9%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
91.5¢
Sell Yes
88.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Danish Social Liberal Party
80.3%
Polymarket 80.3%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danish Social Liberal Party
Last price
80.3%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
70.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Green Left
53%
Polymarket 53%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
Contract
Green Left
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
Venstre
52.4%
Polymarket 52.4%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 79.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $126 (1.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Venstre
Last price
52.4%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
79.6¢
Sell Yes
25.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$126 (1.26x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Conservative People’s Party
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 43¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Conservative People’s Party
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$464
Trade this on Polymarket
Red–Green Alliance
15.1%
Polymarket 15.1%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 28.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $353 (3.53x)
Polymarket
Contract
Red–Green Alliance
Last price
15.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
28.3¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$353 (3.53x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Liberal Alliance
10.2%
Polymarket 10.2%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 11.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $862 (8.62x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liberal Alliance
Last price
10.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
11.6¢
Sell Yes
8.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$862 (8.62x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Alternative
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 18.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $535 (5.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Alternative
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
18.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$535 (5.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Naleraq
7.7%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Naleraq
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 6 more outcomes
Danish People’s Party
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 9.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,075 (10.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danish People’s Party
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Citizens’ Party
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Citizens’ Party
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Denmark Democrats
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denmark Democrats
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands)
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands)
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Inuit Ataqatigiit
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Inuit Ataqatigiit
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Union Party
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Union Party
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Moderates
  • Social Democrats
  • Danish Social Liberal Party

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Which parties will be part of the next Government of Denmark?". Moderates last traded at 93.6%. Next is Social Democrats at 89.9%. $125K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 24, 2026.

A Parliamentary election is scheduled to be held in Denmark on March 24, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Danish government formed after the 2026 Danish parliamentary election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the monarch after the 2026 Danish parliamentary election, with ministers sworn in under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside the cabinet (e.g., through parliamentary support agreements or similar arrangements) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Denmark.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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