The Prediction Markets

Which parties will be part of the next Government of Slovenia?

FinalKickoff
Traded
$229K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Mar 22, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 162 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi)
97%
Polymarket 97%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 99.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi)
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
99.1¢
Sell Yes
94.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Democrats (D)
96.3%
Polymarket 96.3%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Democrats (D)
Last price
96.3%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
94.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Polymarket
Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS)
96%
Polymarket 96%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS)
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Slovenian People’s Party (SLS)
81.8%
Polymarket 81.8%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 94.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Slovenian People’s Party (SLS)
Last price
81.8%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
94.5¢
Sell Yes
69.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Party of Generations (SG)
46%
Polymarket 46%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 91.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Party of Generations (SG)
Last price
46%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
91.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Freedom Movement (GS)
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Freedom Movement (GS)
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mi, socialisti! (Mi!)
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mi, socialisti! (Mi!)
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$862
Trade this on Polymarket
The Left (Levica)
3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Left (Levica)
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Resni.ca (Res)
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Resni.ca (Res)
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$56K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vesna – Green Party (Vesna)
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vesna – Green Party (Vesna)
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
Social Democrats (SD)
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Social Democrats (SD)
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Our Country (ND)
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Our Country (ND)
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Prerod (PVP)
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Prerod (PVP)
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pirate Party of Slovenia (PPS)
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pirate Party of Slovenia (PPS)
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Slovenian National Party (SNS)
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 3896 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Slovenian National Party (SNS)
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 162 d ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi)
  • Democrats (D)
  • Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Which parties will be part of the next Government of Slovenia?". New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (NSi) last traded at 97%. Next is Democrats (D) at 96.3%. $229K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 22, 2026.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Slovenia on March 22, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Slovenian government formed after the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following a successful vote of confidence in the Slovenian National Assembly (Državni zbor), with ministers sworn in under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without signing the coalition agreement and holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Slovenia.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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