The Prediction Markets

Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

Closes
Nov 30, 2026, in 38 days
Traded
$25K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Ra'am 96%

Next is RZP-Zehut at 93%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ra'am
96%
Polymarket 96%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 97.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ra'am
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97.5¢
Sell Yes
94.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
RZP-Zehut
93%
Polymarket 93%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
RZP-Zehut
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Coalición Canaria
88.5%
Kalshi 88.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Coalición Canaria
Last price
88.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Adelante Andalucía
72.5%
Kalshi 72.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Adelante Andalucía
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Podemos
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Podemos
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Reservists and New Economic Party
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reservists and New Economic Party
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Amcha Yisrael
43%
Polymarket 43%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
Amcha Yisrael
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Se Acabó La Fiesta
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Se Acabó La Fiesta
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$788
Trade this on Kalshi
Blue & White
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 33s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Blue & White
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: gov.il
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Spanish Ministry of the Interior, Junta Electoral Central

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ra'am
  • RZP-Zehut
  • Coalición Canaria

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Ra'am for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?". Ra'am leads at 96%. Next is RZP-Zehut at 93%. $25K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 30, 2026.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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