The Prediction Markets

Which party will win the next UK general election?

Closes
Aug 31, 2029, in 35 months
Traded
$261K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Labour party 38.1%

Next is Reform party at 37.1%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Labour party 38.1%Reform party 37.1%Conservative party 21%Restore Britain party 1.7%Liberal Democratic party 1.5%3 others 0.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Labour party
38.1%
Kalshi 38%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Labour party
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Reform party
37.1%
Kalshi 37%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Reform party
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$75K
Trade this on Kalshi
Conservative party
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conservative party
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Restore Britain party
1.7%
Kalshi 1.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,923 (19.2x)
Kalshi
Contract
Restore Britain party
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$103K
Trade this on Kalshi
Liberal Democratic party
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Liberal Democratic party
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Green party
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Green party
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bruv party
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bruv party
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Your Party
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Kalshi
Contract
Your Party
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$354
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The New York Times, the House of Commons

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Labour party
  • Reform party
  • Conservative party

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which party will win the next UK general election?". Labour party leads at 38.1%. Next is Reform party at 37.1%. $261K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Aug 31, 2029.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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