The Prediction Markets

Which players will retire before 1 July 2027?

Closes
Jul 1, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Olivier Giroud 72%

Next is Manuel Neuer at 51.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Olivier Giroud
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Olivier Giroud
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$274
Trade this on Polymarket
Manuel Neuer
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manuel Neuer
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$950
Trade this on Polymarket
Luka Modric
50.4%
Polymarket 50.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luka Modric
Last price
50.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99.4¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Polymarket
Thomas Muller
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100 (1.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thomas Muller
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Polymarket
Angel Di Maria
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Angel Di Maria
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$29
Trade this on Polymarket
Edin Dzeko
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Edin Dzeko
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
Wojciech Szczesny
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wojciech Szczesny
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$48
Trade this on Polymarket
James Rodriguez
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Rodriguez
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert Lewandowski
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Lewandowski
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Polymarket
Karim Benzema
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Karim Benzema
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$20
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 5 more outcomes
Luis Suarez
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Luis Suarez
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$533
Trade this on Polymarket
Cristiano Ronaldo
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cristiano Ronaldo
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Polymarket
Ivan Perisic
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ivan Perisic
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$54
Trade this on Polymarket
Marco Reus
17.1%
Polymarket 17.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 33.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $296 (2.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Reus
Last price
17.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
33.8¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$296 (2.96x)
Volume
$211
Trade this on Polymarket
Lionel Messi
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 19.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $503 (5.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
19.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$503 (5.03x)
Volume
$816
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Olivier Giroud
  • Manuel Neuer
  • Luka Modric

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which players will retire before 1 July 2027?". Olivier Giroud leads at 72%. Next is Manuel Neuer at 51.5%. $3K has traded across 15 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player announces his retirement from professional football on or before June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To resolve "Yes", the announcement must clearly state that the player is retiring from professional club football, and must come from the player himself, his official representatives, or his club. Retirement from international football alone does not qualify. The retirement must be intended to take effect immediately or before the start of the next club season following the announcement. A player who is without a club but has not announced his retirement has not retired for the purposes of this market. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the player or his club. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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