The Prediction Markets

Which Senate races will be within 5 points?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$41K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Iowa 74%

Next is Michigan at 72%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Iowa
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iowa
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michigan
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michigan
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Texas
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Texas
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kansas
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kansas
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Maine
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maine
Last price
67%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ohio (special)
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ohio (special)
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alaska
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alaska
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nebraska
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nebraska
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$433
Trade this on Kalshi
Idaho
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Idaho
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mississippi
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mississippi
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
South Dakota
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
South Dakota
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
South Carolina
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
South Carolina
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ohio (special)
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Florida (special)
Last price
31%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
New Hampshire
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Kalshi
North Carolina
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 40s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
North Carolina
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Texas Secretary of State, Elections Division, Alaska Division of Elections, Maine Secretary of State, Division of Elections

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Iowa
  • Michigan
  • Texas

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which Senate races will be within 5 points?". Iowa leads at 74%. Next is Michigan at 72%. $41K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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