The Prediction Markets

Which Senators will vote for Heidi Overton?

Closes
Jan 1, 2028, in 15 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Rand Paul 71%

Next is Thom Tillis at 44%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Rand Paul
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Thom Tillis
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thom Tillis
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$885
Trade this on Kalshi
Mitch McConnell
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mitch McConnell
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Susan Collins
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Susan Collins
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bill Cassidy
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bill Cassidy
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$708
Trade this on Kalshi
John Fetterman
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
John Fetterman
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Lisa Murkowski
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lisa Murkowski
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Maggie Hassan
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maggie Hassan
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ruben Gallego
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ruben Gallego
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tim Kaine
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tim Kaine
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Senate

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Rand Paul
  • Thom Tillis
  • Mitch McConnell

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which Senators will vote for Heidi Overton?". Rand Paul leads at 71%. Next is Thom Tillis at 44%. $3K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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