The Prediction Markets

Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$379K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Thom Tillis 10%

Next is Mike Lee at 8.8%. The venues differ most on Ruben Gallego (Polymarket 6.9%, Kalshi 3%), a 3.9-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Thom Tillis
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thom Tillis
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mike LeeArb
8.8%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Lee
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
9.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Lee
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9.4¢ nets 240 bps before fees.

Andy KimArb
7.7%
Polymarket 8%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andy Kim
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Kim
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$620
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 7.9¢ nets 90 bps before fees.

Raphael WarnockArb
7.7%
Polymarket 8.6%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
8.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.7¢
Sell Yes
8.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,149 (11.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raphael Warnock
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 8.4¢ nets 240 bps before fees.

Jerry Moran
7.5%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jerry Moran
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
7.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jerry Moran
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8.3¢.

Kirsten Gillibrand
7.2%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kirsten Gillibrand
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kirsten Gillibrand
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Jacky Rosen
7.2%
Polymarket 7.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jacky Rosen
Last price
7.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Fetterman
7.1%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 7.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,408 (14.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Fetterman
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Padilla
6.8%
Polymarket 6.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Padilla
Last price
6.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
6.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mark Warner
6.6%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Warner
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Warner
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Show 6 more outcomes
Ruben Gallego
5.8%
Polymarket 6.9%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ruben Gallego
Last price
6.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
6.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ruben Gallego
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Josh Hawley
5.8%
Polymarket 5.7%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Hawley
Last price
5.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$47K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Hawley
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Lisa Blunt Rochester
5.5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lisa Blunt Rochester
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lisa Blunt Rochester
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Catherine Cortez Masto
5.1%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Catherine Cortez Masto
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Catherine Cortez Masto
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Rand PaulArb
4.6%
Polymarket 5.2%polled, 2 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
5.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5.2¢
Sell Yes
5.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,923 (19.2x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rand Paul
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 4¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5.1¢ nets 110 bps before fees.

Angela Alsobrooks
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Angela Alsobrooks
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Raphael Warnock on Kalshi at 6¢, sell on Polymarket at 8.4¢ (240 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: senate.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Library of Congress
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Thom Tillis
  • Mike Lee
  • Andy Kim

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Thom Tillis for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?". Thom Tillis leads at 10%. Next is Mike Lee at 8.8%. $379K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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