The Prediction Markets

Which soccer players will transfer clubs before Sep 15, 2026?

Closed
Sep 15, 2026
Traded
$34K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Sep 15, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 126 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Leon Goretzka
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3024 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Leon Goretzka
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
98¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Robert Lewandowski
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3024 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Robert Lewandowski
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Antoine Griezmann
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3024 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Antoine Griezmann
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
96¢
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Julian Brandt
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 3024 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Julian Brandt
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bernardo Silva
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3024 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Bernardo Silva
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
97¢
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mohammed Salah
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3024 h ago
Kalshi
Contract
Mohammed Salah
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
92¢
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dusan Vlahovic
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 3024 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dusan Vlahovic
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bradley Barcola
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 3024 h agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bradley Barcola
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Richarlison
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 3024 h agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Richarlison
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$290
Trade this on Kalshi
Rodrygo
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 3024 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rodrygo
Last price
33%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Scott McTominay
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 3024 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Scott McTominay
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$299
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Maignan
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 3024 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Maignan
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Kalshi
Ruben Neves
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 3024 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ruben Neves
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$275
Trade this on Kalshi
Bruno Fernandes
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 3024 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Fernandes
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$472
Trade this on Kalshi
Dayot Upamecano
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 3024 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dayot Upamecano
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$229
Trade this on Kalshi
Harry Kane
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 3024 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Kane
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$539
Trade this on Kalshi
Lionel Messi
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 3024 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$990
Trade this on Kalshi
Kobbie Mainoo
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 3024 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kobbie Mainoo
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 126 d ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, The Athletic

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Leon Goretzka
  • Robert Lewandowski
  • Antoine Griezmann

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Which soccer players will transfer clubs before Sep 15, 2026?". Leon Goretzka last traded at 99%. Next is Robert Lewandowski at 99%. $34K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Sep 15, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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