The Prediction Markets

Which states will Democrats win a trifecta in 2026?

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Wisconsin 91%

Next is Minnesota at 88%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Wisconsin
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wisconsin
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$127
Trade this on Kalshi
Minnesota
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Michigan
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michigan
Last price
80%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oregon
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oregon
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$315
Trade this on Kalshi
Arizona
71%
Kalshi 71%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arizona
Last price
71%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pennsylvania
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pennsylvania
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nevada
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nevada
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$419
Trade this on Kalshi
Vermont
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vermont
Last price
30%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Arizona Secretary of State, Michigan Department of State, Minnesota Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wisconsin
  • Minnesota
  • Michigan

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which states will Democrats win a trifecta in 2026?". Wisconsin leads at 91%. Next is Minnesota at 88%. $11K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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