The Prediction Markets

Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?

Closes
Jan 2, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$795K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Michigan 98%

Next is Mississippi at 96.5%. The venues differ most on New Hampshire (Polymarket 53%, Kalshi 5%), a 48-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Michigan
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michigan
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$455
Trade this on Kalshi
Mississippi
96.5%
Polymarket 96%polled, 29s agoKalshi 98%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mississippi
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mississippi
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 95¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 99¢.

Minnesota
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Indiana
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Indiana
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Polymarket
Utah
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Utah
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$598
Trade this on Polymarket
Missouri
44.5%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Missouri
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Maine
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Maine
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
West Virginia
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
West Virginia
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$96
Trade this on Polymarket
Wyoming
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wyoming
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Massachusetts
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Massachusetts
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$201
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 15 more outcomes
Washington
39%
Polymarket 39%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Washington
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Arkansas
38.5%
Polymarket 38.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arkansas
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$366
Trade this on Polymarket
Colorado
38%
Polymarket 38%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Colorado
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$99
Trade this on Polymarket
New Mexico
37.5%
Polymarket 37.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Mexico
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$695
Trade this on Polymarket
New HampshireArb
36.3%
Polymarket 53%polled, 29s agoKalshi 5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
New Hampshire
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 8¢ and selling on Polymarket at 35¢ nets 2700 bps before fees.

Louisiana
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Louisiana
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$278
Trade this on Polymarket
Rhode Island
32.5%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rhode Island
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Polymarket
Oregon
26.8%
Polymarket 26.8%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 49.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $202 (2.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oregon
Last price
26.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49.6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$202 (2.02x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Polymarket
Pennsylvania
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pennsylvania
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Idaho
24.5%
Polymarket 24.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Idaho
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Wisconsin
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wisconsin
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Vermont
17.8%
Polymarket 17.8%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vermont
Last price
17.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hawaii
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hawaii
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$736
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jul 1, 2027
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
2.2%
Kalshi 2.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$422K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy New Hampshire on Kalshi at 8¢, sell on Polymarket at 35¢ (2700 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 2, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: twitter.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: The Guardian, local news outlets with verifiable mastheads in Iran, Donald Trump
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 2, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Michigan
  • Mississippi
  • Minnesota

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Michigan for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which states will Donald Trump visit in 2026?". Michigan leads at 98%. Next is Mississippi at 96.5%. $795K has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 2, 2027.

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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