The Prediction Markets

Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)

Closed
Jun 18, 2026
Traded
$29K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 18, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 125 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Missouri
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Missouri
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Virginia
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Virginia
Last price
75%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$608
Trade this on Kalshi
Oregon
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oregon
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tennessee
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tennessee
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$475
Trade this on Kalshi
Kansas
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kansas
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$765
Trade this on Kalshi
Louisiana
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Louisiana
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Arizona
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arizona
Last price
41%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Washington
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Washington
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Minnesota
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Iowa
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iowa
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
California
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
California
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
North Dakota
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
North Dakota
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Illinois
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Illinois
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$780
Trade this on Kalshi
Indiana
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indiana
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. Drought Monitor

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Missouri
  • Virginia
  • Oregon

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Which states will experience exceptional drought? (6/4 - 7/30)". Missouri last traded at 95%. Next is Virginia at 75%. $29K has traded across 14 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jul 31, 2026.

Kalshi event status: open

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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