The Prediction Markets

Which states will redistrict before the 2028 election?

Closes
Nov 7, 2028, in 25 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Illinois 81%

Next is New York at 77%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Illinois
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Illinois
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
New York
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
New York
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$84
Trade this on Kalshi
Indiana
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indiana
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Pennsylvania
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pennsylvania
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$335
Trade this on Kalshi
Colorado
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colorado
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wisconsin
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wisconsin
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$633
Trade this on Kalshi
Kansas
37%
Kalshi 37%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kansas
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Maryland
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maryland
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
New Jersey
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Jersey
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Oregon
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Oregon
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Arizona
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arizona
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Washington
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Washington
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$772
Trade this on Kalshi
Minnesota
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 56s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: legislature of the geography, any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in the geography, the official election administration office of the geography

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Illinois
  • New York
  • Indiana

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which states will redistrict before the 2028 election?". Illinois leads at 81%. Next is New York at 77%. $13K has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 7, 2028.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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