The Prediction Markets

Which states will redistrict before the midterms?

Closes
Nov 1, 2026, in 8 days
Traded
$2.4M
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

California 98.3%

Next is Tennessee at 98%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
California
98.3%
Kalshi 98.3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
California
Last price
98.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$209K
Trade this on Kalshi
Tennessee
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tennessee
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Florida
97.8%
Kalshi 97.8%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Florida
Last price
97.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
97.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$77K
Trade this on Kalshi
Louisiana
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Louisiana
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
97.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$134K
Trade this on Kalshi
Texas
97.5%
Kalshi 97.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Texas
Last price
97.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
97.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$80K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ohio
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ohio
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
North Carolina
95.1%
Kalshi 95.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
North Carolina
Last price
95.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.7¢
Sell Yes
95.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mississippi
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mississippi
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Washington
2.7%
Kalshi 2.7%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Washington
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Utah
2.6%
Kalshi 2.6%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
Utah
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$109K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 15 more outcomes
South Carolina
2.1%
Kalshi 2.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
South Carolina
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$167K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alabama
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alabama
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$106K
Trade this on Kalshi
Arizona
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arizona
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Illinois
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Illinois
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$36K
Trade this on Kalshi
Missouri
1.3%
Kalshi 1.3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Kalshi
Contract
Missouri
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$321K
Trade this on Kalshi
Maryland
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maryland
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Kalshi
Minnesota
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Minnesota
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nebraska
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nebraska
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
New Jersey
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
New Jersey
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Wisconsin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wisconsin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Georgia
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Georgia
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$59K
Trade this on Kalshi
New York
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
New York
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$121K
Trade this on Kalshi
Virginia
0.2%
Kalshi 0.2%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Virginia
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$625K
Trade this on Kalshi
Indiana
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Indiana
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$85K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kansas
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kansas
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: state legislatures, Secetaries of State, any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in the state

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • California
  • Tennessee
  • Florida

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Which states will redistrict before the midterms?". California leads at 98.3%. Next is Tennessee at 98%. $2.4M has traded across 25 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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